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    Green Plains (GPRE)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 18, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$11.64Last close (Oct 30, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$12.93Open (Oct 31, 2024)
    Price Change
    $1.29(+11.08%)
    • Green Plains' Advantage Nebraska carbon sequestration project is on track to begin operations and cash flows in the second half of 2025, expected to generate approximately $130 million per year in EBITDA, significantly enhancing shareholder value.
    • The company has successfully started producing clean sugar at commercial scale, planning to execute first bulk commercial sales and ship low-CI dextrose to customers in the fourth quarter. The margins for clean sugar production are expected to provide a $0.67 to $0.87 per gallon uplift compared to making alcohol, representing a significant new revenue stream.
    • Green Plains achieved a record ethanol operating rate of nearly 97%, delivered record ultra-high protein production, and maintained strong corn oil yields, demonstrating improved operational performance and positioning the company for continued growth.
    • Protein margins are lower than expected due to the availability of cheap competing products, leading to margin compression and uncertainty about future profitability.
    • Delays and challenges in scaling up Clean Sugar Technology (CST) could impact growth, as the company needs more time to optimize the process before deciding on additional facilities.
    • Recent compression of ethanol margins and uncertainty about whether producers will adjust production could negatively affect near-term earnings.
    1. Carbon Capture Revenue Potential
      Q: How will carbon credits impact future earnings?
      A: We expect carbon credits to generate a $250-$300 million annual run-rate value from our Nebraska assets, which is likely not reflected in current models. We have a fixed-fee agreement with Trailblazer for transport and injection without sharing upside in credit values. We plan to monetize credits from 45Z, 45Q, and either voluntary or LCFS credits, aiming to reduce our carbon score below 50 and generate over 800,000 tons of high-quality carbon credits. We have interest from companies to take our credits to market, and we expect significant profitability from these initiatives.

    2. Election Risk to Tax Credits
      Q: Could changes jeopardize 45Z and 45Q credits?
      A: While there is political talk about eliminating the IRA, we believe 45Q is not part of it and has bipartisan support. Even in a worst-case scenario, 45Q remains a 12-year program starting when we begin sequestering carbon. Multiple industries support preserving and extending 45Z, so we are optimistic about the prospects despite election risks.

    3. Ethanol Margins Outlook
      Q: Will producers lower rates to lift prices?
      A: The margin environment is volatile, but we're cautiously optimistic. We saw compression late in the quarter, but recent data shows demand is absorbing production. We're not at a point to significantly reduce production, and as we approach driving season, margins could improve. The corn basis in Q3 was $0.50 per bushel better than the prior three years.

    4. Protein Margins and Outlook
      Q: How do you view ultra-high protein premiums?
      A: While protein margins are lighter than hoped, we still earn a margin and expect the market to absorb additional supply over the next 18 months. Demand remains strong internationally, and pet food demand is robust with increased volumes. We're focusing on cost reductions and improving product consistency to enhance margins.

    5. Clean Sugar Technology Progress
      Q: What's the status of Clean Sugar Technology?
      A: We've started producing commercial volumes of dextrose using our CST, with early feedback from North American customers being positive. Margins remain strong, as making dextrose instead of alcohol yields significantly higher margins. We're obtaining food-grade certifications to enter consumer markets. This technology is a game-changer that's never been done before at this scale.

    6. Decision on Blue Blade Energy
      Q: Update on Blue Blade Energy project?
      A: We've decided not to proceed with the initial catalyst for Blue Blade Energy. Instead, we're focusing on technologies that are quicker to market, such as those from UOP Honeywell. Our emphasis is on being a provider of low-carbon fuels, energy, and ingredients rather than building an alcohol-to-jet plant ourselves.

    7. Capacity Increases at Plants
      Q: What capacity increases are expected?
      A: At Mount Vernon, improvements are complete, adding about 20 million gallons of annual capacity along with increased corn oil and protein production. At Obion, we expect to add another 20-25 million gallons per year once construction is finished in the first quarter of next year. Combined, these will add 40-50 million gallons of capacity, supplying more product to existing markets.

    8. Ethanol Export Outlook
      Q: What's your view on ethanol exports next year?
      A: We believe exports will remain robust as global markets increase blend rates. Our product is very competitive, being $0.40 to $0.50 less than wholesale gasoline. We expect to continue exporting to markets like Brazil, India, and the EU, and anticipate a strong margin environment in 2025.

    9. Future Clean Sugar Facilities
      Q: Will you invest in more CST facilities?
      A: While we're optimistic about CST, we want to operate the Shenandoah plant longer before deciding on additional facilities. The economics remain favorable, with an uplift of $0.67 to $0.87 per gallon compared to making alcohol. We're focusing on optimizing and validating the technology before further investment.

    10. Novozymes Partnership Update
      Q: Any updates on Novozymes partnership?
      A: We've renewed our agreement with Novozymes and are collaborating on higher protein products and improved nutritional characteristics. We're making progress in reducing production costs and increasing protein concentrations. We expect significant inroads in the 60 Pro market next year, with demand from pet food customers increasing.

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